Template:DropTest/A Tale of Forgotten Lore/2

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Mission tested: A Tale of Forgotten Lore Elite
By: CodeHydro, Crunch, R'nali & Siguard (+ more)
Date(s): May 2016 – Feb 2019
Runs: 1363   Cost/Run: 4 Chroniton
Item Units Chroniton / unit Runs/Drop
Common Science Experiment 503>>

Common Science Experiment

Average (mean) runs per drop: 3

Based on test averages, to get one more drop,
you may need to do another:

  • 2 runs in 50 percent of cases (median)
  • 6 runs in 10 percent of cases
  • 12 runs in 1 percent of cases

That is, 1 in 100 players may not see this item
drop at all even after 11 runs.

Also, a run dropping only this item is expected
per 14,000 runs or so.

10.8Statistical Strength: Very reliable

Range of average cost per
Common Science Experiment
within 2 standard deviations
(~95.5% confidence):

9.99 — 11.85
>>
2.7
Basic Alpha-wave Inducer 472>>

Basic Alpha-wave Inducer

Average (mean) runs per drop: 3

Based on test averages, to get one more drop,
you may need to do another:

  • 2 runs in 50 percent of cases (median)
  • 7 runs in 10 percent of cases
  • 13 runs in 1 percent of cases

That is, 1 in 100 players may not see this item
drop at all even after 12 runs.

Also, a run dropping only this item is expected
per 18,000 runs or so.

11.6Statistical Strength: Very reliable

Range of average cost per
Basic Alpha-wave Inducer
within 2 standard deviations
(~95.5% confidence):

10.62 — 12.67
>>
2.9
Common Interlink 709>>

Common Interlink

Average (mean) runs per drop: 2

Based on test averages, to get one more drop,
you may need to do another:

  • 2 runs in 50 percent of cases (median)
  • 5 runs in 10 percent of cases
  • 9 runs in 1 percent of cases

That is, 1 in 100 players may not see this item
drop at all even after 8 runs.

Also, a run dropping only this item is expected
per 3,500 runs or so.

7.7Statistical Strength: Very reliable

Range of average cost per
Common Interlink
within 2 standard deviations
(~95.5% confidence):

7.19 — 8.27
>>
1.9
Common Spices 264>>

Common Spices

Average (mean) runs per drop: 6

Based on test averages, to get one more drop,
you may need to do another:

  • 4 runs in 50 percent of cases (median)
  • 12 runs in 10 percent of cases
  • 24 runs in 1 percent of cases

That is, 1 in 100 players may not see this item
drop at all even after 23 runs.

Also, a run dropping only this item is expected
per 180,000 runs or so.

20.7Statistical Strength: Very reliable

Range of average cost per
Common Spices
within 2 standard deviations
(~95.5% confidence):

18.44 — 23.47
>>
5.2
Basic Synthesized Polymer 3504>>

Basic Synthesized Polymer

Average (mean) runs per drop: 1

Based on test averages, to get one more drop,
you may need to do another:

  • 1 runs in 50 percent of cases (median)
  • 1 runs in 10 percent of cases
  • 2 runs in 1 percent of cases

That is, 1 in 100 players may not see this item
drop at all even after 1 runs.

Also, a run dropping only this item is expected
per 5.9 runs or so.

1.6Statistical Strength: Very reliable

Range of average cost per
Basic Synthesized Polymer
within 2 standard deviations
(~95.5% confidence):

1.53 — 1.59
>>
0.4

Average cost per unit assumes 4 standard rewards per run.

Please Do NOT include results from "Double-Up" Adwarps.
   Double-Up results are not random and will skew results.