Template:DropTest/Proof of Concept/2

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Mission tested: Proof of Concept Elite
By: middlehead, Iknamur, Crunch & Elynduil (+ more)
Date(s): July 2016 – Jun 2020
Runs: 227   Cost/Run: 18 Chroniton
Item Units Chroniton / unit Runs/Drop
Super Rare Expansion Module ★★★★ 17>>

Super Rare Expansion Module ★★★★

Average (mean) runs per drop: 14

Based on test averages, to get one more drop,
you may need to do another:

  • 10 runs in 50 percent of cases (median)
  • 31 runs in 10 percent of cases
  • 61 runs in 1 percent of cases

That is, 1 in 100 players may not see this item
drop at all even after 60 runs.

Also, a run dropping only this item is expected
per 64,000 runs or so.

240.4Statistical Strength: Somewhat unreliable

Range of average cost per
Super Rare Expansion Module ★★★★
within 2 standard deviations
(~95.5% confidence):

162.47 — 461.62
>>
13.4
Rare Polyalloy ★★★ 18>>

Rare Polyalloy ★★★

Average (mean) runs per drop: 13

Based on test averages, to get one more drop,
you may need to do another:

  • 9 runs in 50 percent of cases (median)
  • 29 runs in 10 percent of cases
  • 58 runs in 1 percent of cases

That is, 1 in 100 players may not see this item
drop at all even after 57 runs.

Also, a run dropping only this item is expected
per 54,000 runs or so.

227.0Statistical Strength: Somewhat unreliable

Range of average cost per
Rare Polyalloy ★★★
within 2 standard deviations
(~95.5% confidence):

154.9 — 424.68
>>
12.6
Uncommon Expansion Module ★★ 160>>

Uncommon Expansion Module ★★

Average (mean) runs per drop: 2

Based on test averages, to get one more drop,
you may need to do another:

  • 1 runs in 50 percent of cases (median)
  • 3 runs in 10 percent of cases
  • 6 runs in 1 percent of cases

That is, 1 in 100 players may not see this item
drop at all even after 5 runs.

Also, a run dropping only this item is expected
per 77 runs or so.

25.5Statistical Strength: Very reliable

Range of average cost per
Uncommon Expansion Module ★★
within 2 standard deviations
(~95.5% confidence):

22.43 — 29.64
>>
1.4
Common Furs 236>>

Common Furs

Average (mean) runs per drop: 1

Based on test averages, to get one more drop,
you may need to do another:

  • 1 runs in 50 percent of cases (median)
  • 2 runs in 10 percent of cases
  • 4 runs in 1 percent of cases

That is, 1 in 100 players may not see this item
drop at all even after 3 runs.

Also, a run dropping only this item is expected
per 24 runs or so.

17.3Statistical Strength: Very reliable

Range of average cost per
Common Furs
within 2 standard deviations
(~95.5% confidence):

15.66 — 19.35
>>
1
Basic Expansion Module 250>>

Basic Expansion Module

Average (mean) runs per drop: 1

Based on test averages, to get one more drop,
you may need to do another:

  • 1 runs in 50 percent of cases (median)
  • 2 runs in 10 percent of cases
  • 4 runs in 1 percent of cases

That is, 1 in 100 players may not see this item
drop at all even after 3 runs.

Also, a run dropping only this item is expected
per 20 runs or so.

16.3Statistical Strength: Very reliable

Range of average cost per
Basic Expansion Module
within 2 standard deviations
(~95.5% confidence):

14.85 — 18.17
>>
0.9

Average cost per unit assumes 3 standard rewards per run.

Please Do NOT include results from "Double-Up" Adwarps.
   Double-Up results are not random and will skew results.